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Rémy Cointreau (RCO FP): Premium Growth but Premium Valuation
Source: Jefferies International Limited
Edward Mundy, ACA
June 11, 2018
Rating HOLD
Price Target $120.00 (from $105.00)
Price $122.90
Key Takeaway
We like Remy's category exposure (80% cognac) and see upside as the CEO rolls out her vision for the company as a super-premium business. Fundamentals in the Cognac Division remain strong which should support EBIT growth 12-13% in F19. While we like Remy, trading at 33.3x CY19E (vs staples 18.9x), the shares need upgrades to perform. Remain at HOLD.
Attractive category exposure... With 80% of the business cognac, rising further if other brown spirits Metaxa, St Remy, Mount Gay, Islay Spirits are included, Remy offers a highly attractive brown spirits portfolio that is well positioned to capitalise on the spirits premiumisation trend.
...with a vision as a super-premium business... Remy does not have the financial superpower to compete head-on with spirits majors. Instead, the business will borrow from the CEO's experience in luxury goods, relying more on digital and direct to consumer sales than traditional FMCG marketing.
Premiumisation strategy on-track - co is making good progress with the premiumisation model with 53% of the portfolio now over $50 a bottle vs 45% in F15. The move to 60%-65% over the next three to five years should be feasible given that 80% of sales are over $40. Given that it is unlikely that Cointreau can be sold for >$50 a bottle, the conversion of this 27% of the portfolio ($40-$50 a bottle) is likely to take place across cognac (1738), gin (Botanist), Mount Gay (xo) and higher variants of Metaxa.
Margin outlook - positive trends. Given the stronger than expected margin growth in F18, the company has raised its margin guidance to 240-300bps F18-20E. With 130bps captured in F18 (22.0%), this argues for between 50-85bps org margin expansion p.a. F19 and F20. Although the company is investing ahead of growth in A&P, margins should be driven by continued GM expansion given the company's premiumisation strategy.
What are the risks? Key risk for an investment in Remy is concentration risk in cognac & that consumers move away from cognac towards other brown spirits. However, we see an attractive outlook for the cognac industry with scarcity of inventory helping to drive a robust pricing environment.
What's changed? We increase F19 EPS c2% and our price target to $120 (from $105) to reflect the upgrade and the roll-forward of our DCF by one year.
